Ookla, a globally renowned network speed measurement and data analysis company, recently shared its forecast for the wireless communication market development in 2026 with the media through its Chief Industry Analyst Mike Dano. The former senior editor pointed out that artificial intelligence (AI), fixed wireless access (FWA), and low Earth orbit satellite services may play important roles next year, while 5G Advanced and 6G are not expected to become market hotspots.
The impact of artificial intelligence on networks
Dano believes that the current core issue is how artificial intelligence will affect the 5G market in 2026. He pointed out that from Ookla’s perspective, they will closely monitor latency and upload speed in network performance metrics. Dano explained that the magnitude of the impact largely depends on where AI processing occurs – on the terminal device, on the network side, or in a large data center or edge computing facility. “The answers to these questions will play a crucial role in determining how much impact AI will have on the network. ”He believes that this is still an open question at present.
The satellite communication market is heating up
For next year’s low Earth orbit satellite market, Dano predicts, “I think we will see more activity and more suppliers entering the market in 2026.” He mentioned that Amazon’s LEO project will provide fixed wireless services, while AST SpaceMobile, supported by multiple mainstream operators, is expected to start offering direct to device satellite to mobile services in early 2026. Dano said, “As the market gradually matures, we will see more services provided to consumers, more players entering the market, faster speeds, and better technology. This will become a very noteworthy market.”
The rapid growth of fixed wireless access
Ookla is very optimistic about 5G fixed wireless access services and sees it as one of the highlights of the 5G standard for consumers. Dano revealed that according to Ookla’s calculations, nearly 10% of broadband households in the United States are subscribing to one or another 5G FWA service. Considering that just a few years ago, large-scale FWA was considered impossible, he described this number as “very astonishing”. Now, people are starting to ask, “How big can this market really be?”
Expectations for 5G Advanced and 6G
Dano does not expect 5G Advanced to become a hot topic next year. “I don’t expect a huge wave of enthusiasm towards the 5G Advanced standard. ”He pointed out that operators are currently more focused on profitability rather than adding new services in pursuit of new technologies. He acknowledged that T-Mobile in the United States and several Chinese operators have already initiated the 5G Advanced process, and T-Mobile has stated plans to provide more 5G Advanced services by 2026. I assume that other operators in the United States and around the world will also follow the same path, “he added.
In addition, despite the strong interest around 6G, Dano believes that it will largely remain a “paper talk” in 2026. “In 2026, I believe we will hear a lot of discussions about 6G and see many PPT presentations, but there will be very little substantial progress. ”He also pointed out that standard organizations like 3GPP are still working hard to develop the next generation cellular standards.
Dano’s analysis is based on Ookla’s extensive Speedtest data and network intelligence tools, providing data-driven insights into the development direction of wireless communication in 2026.