Recently, LightCounting (LC) has updated its optical sensor predictions for the smartphone and automotive markets. The following content is excerpted from the report released by the research company in November 2021, when people were paying close attention to the laser radar market: “LightCounting was skeptical of the prediction of the widespread deployment of autonomous vehicle in the next five years, because there are still huge challenges to overcome in technology, regulation and society.”
In October 2022, Ford announced plans to shut down Argo, its multi billion dollar joint venture with Volkswagen to develop L4/L5 level autonomous driving technology. Ford now plans to focus on using LiDAR for L2/L3 level advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS). L3 is defined as autonomous driving under specific conditions. LC expects that most of these deployments will actually be L2.5 level, which always requires driver attention, but does greatly improve safety. Safety is the top priority, and car manufacturers are willing to invest all necessary funds to improve safety.
From 2022 to 2023, Chinese car manufacturers have started deploying LiDAR on many of their models and expanding their production scale. Hesai Technology and Sagitar Juchuang (leading LiDAR suppliers) have now become listed companies, reporting a steady increase in LiDAR shipments over the past two years and the first nine months of 2024. However, the sharp decline in prices has limited the growth of sales. LC expects sustained price declines coupled with stable demand to lead to a decrease in sales in 2025-2026. The reduction in the purchase volume of LiDAR by European and North American car manufacturers will be another negative factor affecting the market. The segmented market is shown as’ Other Cars’ in the following figure.
In August 2024, Mobileye, the largest ADAS system supplier, announced that it would shut down its internal LiDAR research and instead focus on computer vision perception systems: “For L3 level ADAS systems, car manufacturers are increasingly likely to use imaging radar and computer vision perception instead of LiDAR.” The company also mentioned that the decrease in the cost of LiDAR sensors on the market was one of the reasons for deciding to end internal LiDAR development.
Sharp price drops are common in emerging markets. The VCSEL array market analysis included in this report is the latest example. Competition among suppliers can bring prices to incredible new lows, especially when demand is declining or stable. However, this situation will not last forever. LC expects the price of VCSEL arrays for smartphones to stabilize from next year onwards. It is expected that the rate of price decline in the LiDAR market will slow down by 2027, leading to a recovery in growth in this field.
After several years of decline, sales of VCSEL arrays used in smartphones are expected to increase by 2025. The use of 3D facial recognition technology in Huawei smartphones is one of the key factors supporting the growth of this field.