A new study warns that the aging global cable repair fleet may hinder the upcoming wave of submarine cable construction.

A report commissioned by the Submarine Cable Association estimates that the submarine communication cable capacity industry will need to spend $3 billion over the next 15 years to upgrade its maintenance and repair fleet.

It is predicted that during this period, the number of deployed fiber optic cables will increase by 48%, while the annual maintenance volume may increase by 36%.

According to the study, approximately 1.6 million kilometers of new cable systems will be deployed into the ocean between now and 2040, which is almost twice the amount of fiber optic cables being retired from service.

Meanwhile, by 2040, 47% of the global fiber optic cable fleet will be nearing the end of its 40 year lifespan.

The report author points out that this disconnect phenomenon increases the potential risk of fiber optic cable failures, especially in regions such as the Southwest Pacific and Northwest Pacific, which require a disproportionate amount of maintenance.

These factors have raised concerns about whether existing ship maintenance capabilities can maintain service quality.

The report states that although the existing management model has largely provided good services for the industry, the aging of ships, the backlog of repairs in high usage areas, and the demand for investment in new ships pose significant challenges.

This is not the first warning to the industry and government that seemingly ordinary repair ships may become bottlenecks in the global digital economy.

The report compares the long-term investment in large-scale submarine fiber optic cable systems with the uneven investment in cable vessels.

The report points out that “intermittent investment in new ships and the trend of introducing second-hand ships into maintenance fleets are products of high capital costs, market uncertainty, and maintenance agreement economic factors.”

The industry itself is skeptical about the feasibility of maintaining its current business model. According to the existing system, the world is divided into different geographical regions, and optical cables are maintained through alliance agreements or proprietary agreements within the regions.

But a survey found that 70% of cable repair companies and 61% of submarine cable owners question the current system’s ability to serve the industry in the next 15 years. This uncertainty is exacerbated by intensified geopolitical competition and security concerns, leading to increased government scrutiny and regulatory efforts.

The author points out that there is no single solution that can solve all business and operational problems: “Addressing the gap in global maintenance coverage, especially in emerging regions such as the South Pacific and Indian Ocean, will require innovative solutions.”

But they urge all parties to respond flexibly and are willing to let traditional practices evolve to adapt to the interests of all parties and the constantly changing power landscape. They stated, “Hybrid business models, asset based competition, and collaborative bidding processes may provide feasible alternatives to address the limitations of the current situation.”