Recently, market research firm Cignal AI released the Optical Circuit Switch Market – Q2 2026 report, raising its forecast for the optical circuit switch (OCS) market to exceed $8 billion by 2030. This significant upward revision reflects new visibility into emerging Scale Up opportunities in Nvidia and other GPU networks, which will complement Google’s established Scale Out (TPU) applications. The updated report provides detailed Scale Up models, revised OCS port-to-XPU ratios, and expanded vendor coverage encompassing over 20 suppliers.

Scott Wilkinson, Chief Analyst for Optical Components at Cignal AI, stated: “OCS began with Google’s story, and we have been searching for the next large-scale customer or application—namely, the next-generation optical-based scale-up architecture. As Nvidia introduces optics into scale-up through multi-rack architectures like CPO and NVL576, OCS has gained a second market with a scale comparable to the TPU deployments currently driving OCS sales.”

Since market size largely depends on a few highly variable assumptions (port price, XPU shipments), the OCS report includes an interactive tool that allows users to replace Cignal AI’s forecasts with their own TPU and GPU shipment predictions and observe how the forecasts change.
Key Points of the Optical Circuit Switch Market – Q2 2026:

– The Scale Out of TPU networks remains the sole large-scale deployment to date and will continue to dominate the market in the next two to three years. Recent revenue is primarily concentrated in Google, whose OCS development was previously conducted internally but is now shifting to third-party suppliers.

– Scale Up in GPU networks is an emerging application, related to rack-to-rack optical interconnects, particularly in Nvidia’s rack-level roadmap. Nvidia plans to integrate OCS into its upcoming Rubin Ultra NVL576 architecture, with mass production expected to begin in 2028.

– OCS revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of over 30% between 2026 and 2030. Revenue and port shipments by application are detailed in the report.

– With the emergence of silicon photonics-based startups, the supplier ecosystem continues to expand. Google has issued purchase orders to Lumentum, Coherent, and Huber+Suhner, shifting from internal development to a competitive commercial supply chain. However, scale-up applications provide an attractive entry point for silicon photonics-based suppliers.

– OCS deployment has reshaped the demand for data center transceivers. Standards such as single-fiber FR optical components and OCI MSA outperform parallel-fiber DR optical components, while customized solutions like higher optical power and circulators for bidirectional operation are becoming increasingly prevalent.